we’re encouraged by signs the war on inflation is ending

inflation statistics are normalizing, the Fed is less dogmatic, and interest rate futures now imply cuts before Christmas. Moreover, recent economic data and company earnings show more resilience than feared.

‘scorched earth’ monetary policy downgraded as bear markets rebounded or recovered entirely. Year-to-date trading is positive: stocks +8%, bonds +5%, real estate +10%, gold +3%, bitcoin +40%.

household investors are nowhere to be found.

Having predictably realized losses in the throes of the selling, the recovery has less views on TikTok than one would expect. Amid resurgent markets, cash is what’s trending – household cash allocations are now the highest in years. This for us, is another reason for optimism.

hopes of reentering markets lower may be frustrated.

many hope for a crash and are incredulous of the sustainability of the recovery. We suspect market timing plans to be pervasive that they’re unlikely to materialize as intended. Cash is so heavily crowded, big banks have little incentive to compete for deposits.

The largest banks (e.g. Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America) offer savers a narrow fraction of one percent on “high yield savings” deposits. the analog portfolio, precious metals and cryptos have very good prospects.

Our advice is consistent: remain diversely invested – where suitable and appropriate.